DFS Advice 10/25/19

5 min read

Quick Look at Today’s Slate

AwayHomeFavoriteSpreadTotal
TORBOSBOS3.0215.5
MINCHAMIN3.5227.0
NYKBKNBKN8.0226.5
CHIMEMMEM0.5221.5
DALNORNOR2.5228.0
WASOKCOKC8.5220.5
PHODENDEN11.5221.5
PORSACSAC2.5227.0

Wednesday Recap

Unfortunately, after my article was posted Jimmy Butler was ruled out. This meant that Winslow was a smash play, especially, with how bad SF was. I’m hoping that anyone that read my targets pivoted from Isaac to Winslow as they were the same price. I myself didn’t have a great day on FD but was able to take advantage of pairing KAT/Drummond in DK and Yahoo, which lead to a successful evening of DFS.

Initial Thoughts

I always like to engrave the over/under and spread into my head before looking into players and matchups. At first glance teams I will target are MIN, CHA, DAL, POR, SAC. Depending on the price of value I will consider NYK/NOR but its always hard to trust Fizdale and the Pelicans seem to play anyone who is sitting in the first row so it’s hard to get a read on who to target there. Note: All Prices are FanDuel.

Targets

My goal is to provide my favorite target or value target at each position.

PG | Luka Doncic | 10,000
There’s no question that the Mavs are Luka’s team. He came with a USG rate above 35 from Wednesday’s contest. He now gets a matchup with the Pelicans who struggled to keep Lowry/FVV in check. Luka’s priced where we need a 50 burger from him to pay off, which hopefully scares other players off him. I think he eclipses 60 Fpts tonight with his first trip/dub of the season.

PG | Elfrid Payton | 5,700
This one makes me a little hesitant to even put on paper. I was going to move Elf to an HM but I just don’t see anyone else that provides some value.at the PG position. Elf scored 40 fpts in 24 mins in game 1. He had 5 steals which drastically increased his output. Take those away and you are looking at numbers that you would expect for a 5k player. The hard part here is to trust Fizdale to give Elf 20+ minutes. If you think he gets 20-24 minutes his price is fine. In case you’re stuck weighing on the risk/reward here, if his minutes were to get to 30 you could see a huge payoff as his ownership % will be low.

SG | Caris Levert | 6900
SG’s that can wrack up counting stats at mid-range prices are always good targets. The Nets are projected to be in a high scoring game which is also beneficial. With no ‘must plays’ at SG tonight I’m fine with dropping to the mid-tier and locking in Levert as my SG1.

SG | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 6800
SGA looks to be getting all the run he can handle. He’s also looking like he’s going to put up as many shots as he can find. SGA should also see a lot of time at the 1 so I look for his AST totals to get a little better. The Thunder get the Wizards at home tonight. SGA will get every opportunity to shine.

SF | Taurean Prince | 5,600
I said Wednesday that Prince was a guy I was highly interested in seeing play. He didn’t disappoint and put up approx 1fpt/min. On a night where it seems mid range value is going to be slim, I think Prince will be my favorite SF target. I expect him to see another 30 minutes vs the Knicks and should easily pay off his price point.

SF | Nemanja Bjelica | 3700
Cheap enough to be in the Chump Charity section but too much value and floor to not be listed in the main targets section. Bagley is out and yes Barnes can slide over and play the 4, and yes Richaun Holmes, BUT I still think we see a bump to Bjelica’s minutes. He’s proven before when given the oppurtunity he can be a fantasy asset.

PF | Lauri Markkanen | 8,200
Still kicking myself for the fade of Markkanen on Wednesday night. I don’t think these are the knock out auto fade Grizzles that we’ve come to know in the past. Lauri is looking like he’s going to be a staple in my lineups until he’s priced in the 9.5-10k range.

PF | Paul Milsap | 6,300
If game 1 is any indicator of what we can expect from Millsap this season things are looking good. He came in at almost 32 minutes. If that’s the expectation that is set I will be happy with paying 6,300 to plug in Milsap moving forward. It also helps that he faces an Ayton-less Suns tonight at home.

C | Hassan Whiteside | 8,000
There are going to be some near minimum punts at Center tonight. (Williams/Baynes) If you aren’t punting at Center though my favorite suggestion would be Whiteside. Hassan put up 40.8 fpts against Denver on Wednesday night. Kings struggle with defending big men. If you have the salary, I would plug Whiteside in with confidence.

Chump Charity

Need a value play to plug in studs, well here are some guys you can roll the dice on.

PG | Cory Jospeh | 3900
Saw 20+ minutes but I would expect that to be less. Fox was in foul trouble.

SG | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 3700
Will see around 24 minutes but is scoring dependant. There are much better punt plays at other positions but if KCP were to get hot it could pay off.

PF | Richaun Holmes/Daniel Theis/Frank Kaminsky | All 3700 or under.
All will see an increase in minutes and production.

C | Robert Williams/Aron Baynes | 3700 or Under
No Kanter, No Ayton. Both will see 20+ minutes, both are viable punts.

Final Thoughts

I really struggled with roster construction today. I’m hoping that’s common across the board or I’m going to be in trouble. I’m going to build around Doncic/Lauri/Whiteside and see what I can make do with that. Don’t forget about the value plays tonight as there are a lot of them. This should help fit in the stud of your choice.

Good Luck.