DFS Advice 10/23/19

5 min read

Quick Look at Today’s Slate

AwayHomeFavoriteSpreadTotal
CLEORLORL8.5213.5
CHICHACHI3.0219.5
DETINDIND7.5210.0
MINBKNBKN3.5226.5
MEMMIAMIA7.5212.0
BOSPHIPHI5.0210.5
WASDALDAL8.5222.5
NYKSASSAS10.0214.5
OKCUTAUTA9.0223.5
SACPHOSAC1.5234.0
DENPORPOR1.5217.0

Initial Thoughts

First big slate of the season. It’s going to be a lot of relying on Vegas and going with your gut tonight. I’ll be looking at having exposure to the high total games and the ones that are projected to be close. I like both late games tonight. 2nd day of the season and it looks like I’ll already be having to sweat lineups while laying in bed. Note: All Prices are FanDuel.

Targets

Guys I’m targeting in my lineups.

PG | Damian Lillard | 9500
Dame gets a matchup with the Nuggets for the opener, and while there are a plethora of PG options tonight, I think we can get Dame at lower ownership % in a game where his floor comes in at 40 FPTS with I’d say around a 58 pt Ceiling. With this game having a spread of 1 score Dame will be getting a high volume of minutes.

PG | Ish Smith | 4700
Starting PGs who will see 30+ minutes should be priced at 6k or above. Not an exciting play by any means but should be one of the better point/$ players of the night.

SG | Buddy Hield | 7000
Buddy is going to be my way of getting exposure to the Kings tonight. He is the cheapest of Fox/Bagley/Buddy and although he doesn’t have the ceiling of the other 2 I think the price discount can help us pay up a little more at other spots.

SG | Donovan Mitchell | 8400
There aren’t really any mid-range SG’s that I like tonight. If I can afford it I’ll pay up for 2 of the top tier but if not I’ll reach down in the Chump basket to get some salary savings. Mitchell is my favorite over 8k SG play tonight.

SF | Kelly Oubre | 5500
Small Forward is a bit ugly tonight with no studs at the top to target. When that happens look to target value options or target players that are in your target games. That Suns/Kings game should have a lot of fantasy goodness in it. Oubre comes in at 5500 with the opportunity for 30+ minutes to be there.

SF | Jonathan Isaac | 6000
Not the most attractive play and/or total for a game. Isaac is a stat stuffer though and with blocks and steals coming in at 3 pts apiece Isaac could fill it up in a hurry.

PF | Kristaps Porzingis | 7700
I do worry a little bit about his minutes but I think Porzingis will be given every opportunity to shine tonight. There are good reasons for a play and a fade for him tonight. I’m on the play side and just think he is too cheap in the 7k range.

PF | Bam Adebayo | 6900
We get a full season of ‘freed Bam’ this year. It’s going to be fun. The matchup isn’t great but I’m seeing a projection of 31 minutes tonight. 30 minutes of Bam will be plenty of time for him to pay off his price and more.

C | Karl Anthony-Towns | 11000
Towns comes in as the consensus highest projected player on the slate. He has a juicy matchup with the Nets as it is the 2nd highest total on the slate. If you can afford him get him in your lineups.

Honorable Mentions

Other options to target for GPPs

PG | Kyrie Irving | 9000
I’ll have exposure to Kyrie’s debut in Brooklyn. The Wolves haven’t gotten any better defensively and a KAT filled lane doesn’t scare me off Kyrie. Kyrie has slate breaking potential and almost always goes overlooked.

SG | Zach Lavine | 8000
High USG player and should see high minutes tonight.

SF | Taurean Prince | 5000
Prince interests me in Brooklyn. I promise I’ll be making stronger calls as the season goes on and more data is provided. I think Prince is a nice mid-range option for GPPs tonight.

PF | Jarrett Allen | 5800
Listed as a PF on FD. Comes in at a mid-range value and will be overlooked at this position. Also 2nd highest total of the slate.

C | Dewayne Dedmon | 5300
Cheap target in the highest total on the slate. Price is low due to projection of only 24 minutes. Dedmon’s a boom or bust type of player but when he boom’s he can really move you up the leaderboard.

Chump Charity

Need a value play to plug in studs, well here’s some guys you can roll the dice on.

PG | Bryn Forbes | 3500
Minimum priced PG projected for 28 minutes. Not super exciting but when we are looking for cheap punts we want them to have opportunity. I wouldn’t go nuts on Bryn but he’s going to get time on the court vs the terrible Knicks.

SG | Tyler Herro | 3600
Waiters is suspended. Herro had a big preseason spot start. He’s going to get some run and again that’s what we want when we look for chump plays.

SF | Luke Kennard | 4100
The SF position is pretty gross from top to bottom. I think I’ll be hammering Oubre and Isaac almost everywhere, but Kennard would be my value play if I punt at SF.

PF | Christian Wood | 3900
Blake is out. Monitor Morris’s status and if he ends up out Wood could really get some run tonight.

C | Boban Marjanovic | 3500
Boban is just fun to play. If he gets minutes he’s a point/minute stud. I’m seeing him projected at 14 minutes if that gets up to 18-20 due to blow out he could really pay off his price point.

Final Thoughts

For my final thoughts, I will break down my thoughts for the initial lineup build. I started at the top with getting Dame and KAT in. From there I went Value with Ish at PG2. Then knowing I don’t like many SF plays I made sure to get Isaac and Oubre. This leaves me with 4 spots left and an average of 5,825 left to spend per spot. I know in my mind I want to try to get up to Porzingis at PF and I start going through who can I find for value. I know at this point double premium SGs is not going to happen so I’m going to try to take advantage of Waiters’ suspension and slide Herro in. Now to ensure I get my Kings exposure I’ll get Buddy in there. This leaves me with 12,700 left to fill my PF spot. At this point, I have to decide which one of my targets I want to ensure I get in. I noticed I could go Bam/Allen or Porzingis/Collins.