DFS Corner – December 21, 2018

7 min read

Here is a quick look at today’s slate:

AwayHomeTotalFavoriteSpread
DETCHA219CHA4.0
CLETOR208.5TOR12.5
INDBKN210.5IND2.5
ATLNYK231NYK2.5
MILBOS223.5BOS1.0
ORLCHI200.5ORL3.5
MINSAS220SAS4.0
UTAPOR213.5POR2.0
MEMSAC212SAC2.0
NORLAL233LAL5.5

Targets:

Players that I like and will be playing in my lineups today on FanDuel.

PGPlayerFD 
Fred VanVleet5300 
FVV will start at PG in place of Lowry tonight.  He draws a matchup with the lowly Cavs who are 27th in DVP vs the PG position.  FVV is about the safest 5X value play on the slate tonight.  He will be super chalky so he will be a lock for me in cash and a value play for me in gpps.
Kris Dunn7500 
This isn’t a matchup play tonight and more so a price play.  It’s my opinion that this will be the last game that Dunn’s price will be under 8k while Lavine is out.  We only have a small sample size for Dunn without Lavine/Portis on the court this season, but that sample shows that he carries a 33% USG rate and averages 1.16 fpts/min.  I also think Vegas is wrong with the total on this game.  Dunn has 50 fpt upside tonight at 2nd tier pricing, I’m going to be all over it.
SGTim Hardaway Jr7000 
Revenge game narratives can actually be quite annoying but in THJ’s case he’s really stuck it to the Hawks this season.  In 2 games he has gone for 49.7 and 51.7 FD pts.  The Hawks are a bottom 3 in DVP here.  Again, 50-burger potential for 7k.  Give me that upside!
Jrue Holiday9400 
I don’t think Holiday is going to make my main lineups today but that doesn’t mean he’s not a great play.  There is a lot of things that can happen yet with injury news for the Pelicans.  About the only for sure thing is that Jrue is going to play.  He will be a good play tonight no matter what happens with the rest of this team.  Full disclosure though I will more than likely be paying down at SG2 so that I can get an elite SF tonight.
SFGiannis 11700 
Lebron is the smarter play here, but smart doesn’t always win in DFS.  With Giannis being 500 more and drawing a tough matchup with the Celtics his ownership should be down.  I like Giannis here because usually Big Al Horford matches up with him but unfortunately for the Celtics he is out tonight.  So, let’s take the C’s misfortune and make it a profitable fortune for us when Giannis goes off tonight for 65+ Fpts!
Gordon Hayward6000 
Yuck, SF is just a tad ugly tonight, outside of the elite plays there are only a few guys I will touch.  Hayward, Gay, & Bojan will be the guys I play in this spot tonight.  Take that for what you feel its worth, also if you have any suggestions for me I’ll take the feedback, just leave a comment below!
PFLaMarcus Aldridge8000 
I like to attack the Wolves with rebounders.  LMA fits that mold. The Spurs have been absolutely thrashing people lately which has helped with a slight pricing dip here.  We are getting a 1/2k discount on a player with 50+ fpts upside here and I also think we get him at a nice ownership discount.
Larry Nance7300 
Nance has been a dude lately.  The matchup here is not great but his price is low enough that he can get there on volume alone.  Other options in the price range are Markkanen and Aaron Gordon (who I will talk about below).
CMyles Turner7300 
Turner has been playing Myles better as of late.  With 3 straight 35+ fpts outings on his back he gets a matchup with the Nets tonight.  The Nets are above and beyond the worse team at defending the Center position.  The matchup here is great, the price is a little high but I think it will keep the ownership down.

 

 

Honorable Mentions

PGPlayerFD 
Lonzo Ball7000 
Lonzo has been playing his best ball of the season over his last 8 games.  Tonight, he gets the best PG matchup on the slate.  I don’t think this is a sneaky gpp play at all but I plan to get some Ball exposure.
SGVictor Oladipo8300 
Dipo’s price is sliding and rightfully so as he has only put together 1 solid fantasy game (for his price) since his return from injury.  I like taking advantage of price drops and know that one of these games he’s going to bounce back.  Tonight, might be that night as he will have 50+ fpt upside vs the Nets.
SFLebron James11200 
For all practical purposes Lebron is the safest play on tonight’s slate.  (If AD wasn’t sick he’d be #1) As I stated above I’m playing Giannis tonight but if you need that extra 500 feel free to go with the King.
PFAaron Gordon7100 
Aaron Gordon has been down right terrible lately.  He managed to only score 23.5 fpts in this same matchup last week.  I’m betting on the bounce back tonight and with Vuc coming back it will keep his ownership real low.  Again, 50 fpt upside at 7k and sub 10% ownership.
CEnes Kanter6700 
My guess is Kanter will be the ‘chalk’ play at Center tonight.  The matchup vs the Hawks is elite and at 6700 the price is really good.

Chump Charity

Don’t be fooled by the word ‘Chump’ these are value plays that you can slide into your lineup to help you relieve salary to pay up for some Studs.

PGJeremy Lin4200 
Linsanity returns to Madison Square….?
Tony Parker3700 
Put up 29.5 FD pts on 12/12 vs the Pistons.  Great punt/drop option tonight.
SGDelon Wright3900 
Should see 20+ minutes again and be one of the main options on 2nd unit.  One of my favorite cheap plays tonight.
Jaylen Brown4100 
Oh man, he’s just sooooo cheap!!  30+ fpt upside, the DVP data shows that it’s a great spot here.  I’m playing Wright or Brown in all my lineups tonight.  If I have the money it’s Brown.
SFDeMarre Carroll3900 
I remember a time when Carroll was consistently 5-6k…he really can’t be this bad.  The upsides there but I just don’t think I’ll go this cheap at SF tonight.
Doug McDermott3500 
The ultimate reach here.  Tyreke has a Q tag.  Either way Douggie is simply a minimum priced dart throw.
PFDaniel Theis4000 
Al is out again & Morris has a Q tag.  Theis should see 20+ minutes tonight.
Rodions Kurucs4000 
Theis is my preferred play here but Kurucs gives you a pivot off of him.  Should see around 22 mins tonight.
CJakob Poeltl3800 
I really don’t have anything to tell you here.  I just needed to find a near minimum Center to take up this spot in the spreadsheet.  I wouldn’t recommend punting C here….
     

 

Final Thoughts:

Just looking at my builds tonight, I’m really having a hard time getting the studs in and any time I try I feel like I’m forcing it.  I’m really tempted to just go all mid-range high upside players tonight and just hope for the best.  My first lineup build started with FVV/Dunn with THJ/Aldridge and Turner but after playing around I ended up with a Ball/Dunn combo on top.  Then I went THJ/Aldridge and due to pricing dropped Turner down to Kanter.  From there I continued with my high upside lineup and went Gordon at PF2.  At SF I went double mid-range with Hayward/Gay and then finished out my lineup with my favorite Chump SG2.

Thanks again for reading and Good Luck tonight.

Merry Christmas DFS world!

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