DFS Corner – December 7, 2018

5 min read

Here is a quick look at today’s slate:

AwayHomeTotalFavoriteSpread
DENCHA218.5CHA1.0
PHIDET218.5DET1.5
INDORL205.5ORL2.0
TORBKN221TOR9.0
SACCLE221SAC2.5
OKCCHI219.5OKC8.5
MEMNOR216NOR5.5
LALSAS225.5SAS1.0
MIAPHO209MIA7.5
GSWMIL239MIL1.0

Initial Thoughts:

It’s Friday night and there are few things I like more than Friday night NBA DFS action and those are beer, my children, beaches, French fries, beer, chicken, nachos, tacos, and well…I guess I like a lot of other things but that’s besides the point.  Let’s go get it.

Targets

Taking a bit of a different approach today.  Instead of breaking a part cash/gpp players I’m just going to tell you guys I like, and the reasons why.

PG

 

PlayerFD 
De’Aaron Fox7700 
Fox has cooled off as of late so his price has come down a little.  Tonight, he matches up with the Cavs who rank in the bottom 1/3rd in DVP vs PG’s.  I feel like Fox is in a spot where he will go unowned but has 50-burger potential.  Vegas likes this game to be high scoring and close, 2 things that bring on fantasy goodness.
Steph Curry9900 
I want exposure to this game tonight.  The Bucks put a stomping on the Warriors in GS back in early November.  Curry is coming off a 42/7/9 game vs the Cavs.  The Warriors need to string together some wins.  My gut says Curry comes back with another 35 pt outing.  With Conley/Simmons being cheaper and in good spots tonight I think Steph will go low owned again tonight.
SG

 

Jimmy Butler8100 
The dream situation here will be that everyone flocks to Simmons tonight with Embiid out and forgets about Jimmy Buckets.  I don’t think that will happen but it’s my opinion that Butler is the must own here.  In 111 mins without Embiid on the floor Butler’s USG% goes up 10% and is the biggest boost of all the 6ers.
DeMar DeRozan8600 
For those of you that read my blog on Wednesday this is going to be a repeat.  48.9, 61.4, 63.6, those are the FD pts of DeRozan’s 3 matchups vs the Lakers this year. I’m not sure what else needs to be said here.
SFCedi Osman4800 
SF’s a premium position and there are some really good premium plays tonight.  Any of the 9k plus guys are in play but tonight I’m going to be different and find some value here.  Osman comes in at a nice price and is coming off one of his better games in recent memory.  This matchup vs the Kings should be high scoring and fast.  I think Osman is in a spot to bring in 6-7X value tonight.
Rudy Gay5800 
It feels a little bit like chasing but we don’t need 45.4 fpts from Gay here.  In this matchup he’s gone for 45, 44 and 29.  Honestly, Gay’s floor feels about 25ish tonight, but we know where the ceiling is and if he can sniff that 40 fpt mark again I think I will be well on my way to a profitable night.
PFBam Abedayo5500 
The don’t get cute spot of the night.  Bam will be highly owned but rightfully so.  He’s priced high enough to make you think about it but still not high enough for me to try to fade him.  The spot is too good, please just play him.  If you are playing multiples and you want to give a shot at a guy like Kelly O that is fine but I would more than likely play both together.
Blake Griffin9000 
77.8, 61.6….and now no Embiid to help guard the rim.  PF is 6ers weakest position to defend.  Get yourself some Blake and be happy.
CSteven Adams7700 
Best spot for a Center that is actually quantified as a Center.  I will more than likely go Value with Muscala but I do like Adam’s 5X floor and 45 fpt ceiling tonight.

 

Honorable Mentions

PG

 

PlayerFD 
Collin Sexton4900 
This game has my attention.  I’m hoping it gets overlooked and that 2 teams that aren’t known for great defense just go at it.  Sexton is going to get a ton of opportunity and the Kings are one of the better options to attack on this slate at PG.
SG

 

JJ Redick5500 
Really juggling between suggesting Redick or Heild here.  Redick gets the 2nd biggest USG bump of the 6ers I would play tonight.  With Embiid out there is a lot of scoring missing in the 6ers lineup.  What does Redick do best?
SFPremiums9000+ 
I really do like all of the premium SF’s tonight.  If you can afford them go get them.
PFKelly Olynyk5100 
Should go overlooked with Bam being at 5500 and in the same position.  Check out his game logs they’ve been pretty consistent as of late.
CBrook Lopez5300 
He’s been consistent his past 4 games and you can’t go wrong with getting exposure to this game tonight.

 

Chump Charity

Don’t be fooled by the word ‘Chump’ these are value plays that you can slide into your lineup to help you relieve salary to pay up for some Studs.

PGElie Okobo4100 
25+ mins a game at 4100.
George Hill3900 
Okay, if he goes sub 10 fpts again I’ll quit talking about him.
SGJosh Hart3600 
Ingram is out, Hart should see a mins bump.
KCP3700 
I prefer Hart but same reasons apply to KCP here.
SFStanley Johnson4100 
There are so many good mid-range and premium that I don’t suggest punting SF tonight but Johnson fits the mold of minutes/cheap.
Wilson Chandler4000 
No Embiid bumps all 6ers who play…
PFTrey Lyles3600 
Seems ridiculously cheap.  There’s no special reason to go here.
Amir Johnson3500 
Really reaching here.
CMike Muscala4200 
Probably the safest punt tonight.  I honestly like Lopez at 1100 more if you can get there.

 

Final Thoughts:

I was trying to find a way to get Fox/Curry/Butler/DeRozan/Griffin in a lineup withough having to dip into punt range at SF.  It just didn’t happen so I ended up going Sexton over Curry at PG2.  This allowed me to get the rest of my core with Bam/Lopez.  I think tonight I am going with a multi lineup approach and will probably weave with the 5 players I’ve listed above in and out of my lineups.

Best of luck tonight!

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