DFS Corner – December 5th, 2018

7 min read
Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards March 3, 2013

Here is a quick look at today’s slate:

AwayHomeTotalFavoriteSpread
GSWCLE219.5GSW11.0
DENORL206.5DEN5.5
WASATL231.5WAS4.5
OKCBKN220OKC6.5
LACMEM210.5MEM2.0
DETMIL227.5MIL8.5
CHAMIN220.5MIN4.5
DALNOR227NOR5.5
PHITOR229TOR6.0
SASLAL224.5LAL8.5

Initial Thoughts:

First off, it feels good to be back.  Sorry to all of you that became reliant on my breakdowns.  I feel terrible for going AWOL for a month but know it is for good reasons…while I was away I became a father X2 and although this isn’t my main reason for being gone it’s the most exciting thing to happen since I’ve been gone.  Anyways, lets get into tonight’s 10 game slate.

Tonight, you will need to determine what Wizard players you are going to play or fade.  Wall being out is by far the biggest news of the slate.  My cash recommendations are going to be studs to build around.  Unfortunately, it will be impossible to get them all in tonight but hopefully you are able to determine which ones best fit your builds and go from there.

Targets

PG

 

PlayerFDDK
Trae Young70006000
Wizards are dead last in DVP.  Young is a risky cash play but the matchup is right.  I personally think I will be dipping into the Charity bin for my PG plays tonight but Young provides a safe floor based on matchup and might be a little contrarian from the field.
Dennis Smith Jr59005600
DSJ has the Pelicans tonight.  Something that hasn’t changed since my absence is attacking the Pelicans from the PG position.  DSJ has had b2b solid starts and should see 30+ minutes tonight.  I am more than confident in DSJ hitting 5X tonight.
SG

 

Bradley Beal85008400
Beal will be super popular tonight and rightfully so.  In cash he is what you call a block play, I absolutely hate the concept but if you fade for a guy like DDR and Beal outscores DDR then you are going to be behind the field.  In GPP’s the fade makes sense, in DU’s your best to just play Beal and move on…. also in case you want some stats, Beal scores 1.16 fpts/min when he’s on the court without Wall.  (102 minutes this season) If this game is close I could see Beal playing 40+ mins…go ahead and do the math.
DeMar DeRozan84008900
In 2 games vs the Lakers this season DDR has put up 60+ fpts vs the Lakers.  I expect his ownership to be half of Beal’s.  Again, I like DDR in GPPs more than Beal, but you can play both in cash if you can make it work.
SFLeBron James1070010500
I have a feeling the field will be on LeBron tonight too but rightfully so.  He’s the cheapest he’s been all season.  He has already been great in this matchup twice so far, this year.  Lebron’s price has dipped due to blowouts, I think this game stays closer than Vegas predicts which means Lebron will get minutes in the upper 30’s tonight.
Kawhi Leonard98009300
If I can’t afford LeBron I will take the 900 savings and go with Kawhi.  I’m basing this more on a previous matchup then the DVP data.  Kawhi went for 57 FD pts on 10/30 against the 6ers.  I always say the stars come out to play in these marquee matchups.  I fully expect Leonard to put up a 50 burger tonight.
PFSerge Ibaka59005800
It wouldn’t be right if I didn’t try to cram Serge down your throats on the day I return.  Ibaka has had a bit of a rough stretch over his last 5 games but his matchup tonight is a perfect spot for a bounce back.  The 6ers give up the 5th most points the PF position and are actually 2nd on this slate.  Since you can tell I want to pay up at SG/SF/C tonight I need to find mid-range/charity plays at PF.  Ibaka fits that perfect.
Markieff Morris63006400
I’ve got to admit that I’m a bit turned off by the price but again for the reasons I listed for Ibaka, Morris is all over my radar tonight.  He’s a mid-range price that will help me pay up at other positions.  He does average 1.11 fpts/min without Wall this year.  He’s always a risk to play because sometimes he likes to get 3 fouls in a minute and other times likes to just stand in the corner…
CNikola Jokic94009200
Are you sitting down?  Gary Harris is ruled out tonight.  Jokic’s USG increases by 9% sans Gary.  He averages an alarming 1.73 fpts/min in the 114 mins he’s played without Harris on the floor.  I know this is a small sample size but it has me excited!!

 

 

 

 

Chump Charity

Don’t be fooled by the word ‘Chump’ these are value plays that you can slide into your lineup to help you relieve salary to pay up for some Studs.

PGTomas Satoransky38003700
Sato should draw another start tonight and with Wall out should see his minutes in the mid 30’s.  I will have plenty of Sato tonight.
George Hill41003700
Look, George Hill is awful, but Hill is dirt cheap and is going to play.  Going double value at PG can really open things up for your lineup.
SGAlec Burks41004000
I always love firing up Burks when I know he’s going to get minutes.  Since he put on a new uniform he is seeing around 25 mins a game.  The price is right and has tremendous upside.  Value at SG allows you to pair an elite PG option with Sato.
Austin Rivers35003400
All Wizards are in play tonight, even Austin Rivers.  He’s so bad even his own father traded him….and yes he only made my list tonight so I could make that joke.
SFKelly Oubre Jr49004600
Not really a chump charity option but definitely someone worth mentioning.  Oubre actually gets the biggest USG % increase of all the Wizards tonight.  I have a feeling I will Oubre before I Kieff tonight.
Davis Bertans35003500
We won’t know if Bertans will draw another start tonight vs the Lakers by the time lock hits.  At minimum price though he might be worth the risk.  I will more than likely already have too many cheap plays in my cash lineup to go to Bertans tonight but in gpps I think he’s a big time high reward punt play.
PFFrank Kaminsky39003700
Marvin is out.  Frank has torched the Wolves in the past.  (I SEEN IT)
CThomas Bryant36003300
Again, all Wizards are in play tonight, I won’t be going to Bryant on FD but on DK where you can play 2 C’s I may take a look.

 

Final Thoughts:

It feels good to be back, and I apologize that I didn’t do a split cash/gpp target section.  I need to ween myself back in and its definitely possible that I will miss a couple slates down the road.  I will do my best to be consistent and get these out as often as I can without taking another month off!

As for my first roster construction I went Double Charity plays at PG.  Which allowed me to squeeze in both Beal/DDR.  The next 2 guys I had to have were Lebron and Jokic, so this means I won’t be able to afford Kawhi.  Playing Oubre at SF2 let me get Ibaka with another charity play.  I really feel like my 4 studs, Beal/DDR/Lebron/Jokic are going to get me 200-225 tonight pretty easily.  I’m fine with 3 guys 4100 and lower.  Just looking at this makes me want to play around with a balanced gpp lineup as it just seems too easy to get the studs tonight.  Meaning the balanced players should be low owned.

 

Best of luck to you all.

 

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