DFS Corner – November 2nd, 2018

8 min read

Here is a quick look at today’s slate:

AwayHomeTotalFavoriteSpread
LACORL217.0LAC3.0
HOUBKN216.5HOU4.0
INDCHI213.0IND7.0
OKCWAS231.0WAS2.5
NYKDAL217.5DAL6.5
MEMUTA204.5UTA7.5
TORPHO227.0TOR11.0
MINGSW241.0GSW11.0

Initial Thoughts:

A 241 total in the late game!?! Wowzers, that’s a lot of points.  Even with a 11-point spread the Wolves are still predicted to score 115…anyways.  There are plenty of options for Fantasy goodness tonight.  I like the OKC/WAS, HOU/BKN, and LAC/ORL games from first look.  Based on the total the MEM/UTA game will go unowned and if we can figure out who to target there we can gain a GPP advantage.

Cash Game Targets

When looking at cash game players I will be looking at guys that have high floors, whether it is matchup driven or price driven, these players will help you make that cash line in Double Ups and H2Hs.  Cash Game Targets can also be used in Gpp lineups to anchor down your core.

 

PG

 

PlayerFDDK
Russell Westbrook1170010900
Westbrook is coming off his best game of the season where he went 29/8/10 and just missed his first triple double of the season.  Vegas has this game staying close, which means full minutes for Westbrook.  The Wizards so far, this season are ranked 29th in points given up to PG’s.  Westbrook is due for a ceiling game but I feel like his floor is 50 tonight.
Chris Paul91009400
Slight price decrease for Paul. He hasn’t been the stud I thought he’d be with Harden out. He has a chance to right the ship tonight against the Nets, who surprisingly, have defended the PG position well up to this point.  Despite the DVP data I still think Paul is a great play as the Rockets are 1-5 and need a W so I expect CP3 to get all the minutes he can handle.
SG

 

Victor Oladipo90008700
SG scares me tonight.  At the top we have Butler (assuming Harden is out) which I am fine with playing Jimmy Buckets tonight but I don’t think I can go near him in Cash.  Skimming through the rest of the plays and nothing really pops out at me.  When this happens, I tend to pay up or completely punt the position.  Dipo at 9k is expensive but he’s pretty much established his floor at around 38 fpts.   Due to the lack of options and the matchup vs the Bulls who are 29th in Fpts given up to SG’s, I will probably target Dipo tonight.
Eric Gordon55005900
Risky option here as Gordon has been pretty awful all season.  He has shot less than 25% from the field his last few games, but the key here is opportunity.  Over those last 3 games he has put up 53 shots, eventually those are going to fall for him.   His price has also dropped to the lowest point of the season.  – It’s Friday so I’m feeling a little frisky, I’m calling a bounce back game from Gordon tonight and going to label him as the lock of the night!
SFKevin Durant107009900
I tend to play Durant every slate he is available. He is just a great cash option as there is little risk in him not at minimum hitting 4X night in night out (assuming his price stays in the 10k’s).  He consistently fills up stats across the board and his ceiling nights come when he puts up the points.  Kawhi is also in a great spot tonight and both teams are looking at double digit spreads.  I feel like Kawhi is less needed to achieve that double digit win then Durant is, but I can get behind playing Kawhi if the $400 is needed to strengthen another position.
Harrison Barnes60005300
Barnes defines what a cash player is.  He gets minutes and always hovers in the 20’s for USG rate.  He is almost always priced at 5500-6500 and consistently scores in the 25-35 fpts range. Add the consistency in with a matchup vs the Knicks who average giving up 55 fpts/game to the SF position and we have a great value play on our hands.
PFNoah Vonleh57004800
PF lacks an elite play tonight.  Draymond is fine at 8k but I’m more inclined to attack that price in gpp’s and go middle tier in cash.  Vonleh has been unicorn-esque (I like to make up words) since he was thrust into the starting lineup, averaging 32 fpts on approx 27 mins over the last 3 games.  I still think I will keep him in site until he’s 6k.
Pascal Siakam57004800
Siakam has been on a tear the last 2 games, putting up 43 and 47.6 fpts in 2 b2b contents.  His price increased 1300 and that still might be too low.  Tonight, he has a matchup with the Suns who are terrible across the board.  Playing Siakam gives us exposure to Toronto’s high total without having to pay up for Kawhi or Lowry.
CJonas Valanciunas58005300
This recommendation comes only if Jonas comes off the bench.  If they decide to start him tonight I would probably be inclined to move off him.  This is also a very risky cash recommendation as his minutes aren’t safe by any means.  He comes with a super high USG rate off the bench.  If he gets put in the starting lineup I’m more than likely moving to a guy like Adams in cash.  I would still have exposure to Vala in gpps though.

 

 

 

GPP/Tournament Targets

Players that have high ceilings and are a little more on the risky side.

PG

 

PlayerFDDK
John Wall96008100
Contrarian play, when pivoting off the high ownership plays (CP3) you want to play a guy who can outscore the player your fading.  Wall has the ceiling to do this.
Mike Conley77007000
Another Contrarian play.  The total of this game will keep everyone away from it. Conley put up 45 fpts in Utah on 10/22.
SG

 

Damyean Dotson53004400
Good matchup, lots of minutes, pretty inconsistent and surrenders a lot of shots to Hardaway, but the potential is there.
Lou Williams53005500
I’m always going to toot the Lou horn in gpps.  His price is perfect for the play as he has had a pretty solid 20 pt floor.
SFTJ Warren54005000
Keep an eye out for the Booker news, he is a GTD now but if he sits again I like Warren at 5300.  USG/mins have been rising and he’s coming off a 21 point outing vs the Spurs.
Bojan Bogdanovic45004800
30-point upside, Bulls aren’t very good.  Bojan is a decent dart throw at a value price.
PFDraymond Green80006900
Highest priced PF tonight, might be pretty popular, 50 fpt upside at 8k, nothing wrong with the play here.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson54004900
Still getting the injury discount.  RHJ fits the mold of players that have smashed vs Houston so far this season and Rockets are dead last in points given up to PF’s. I will be all over RHJ tonight.
CNikola Vucevic89008600
The Clippers got absolutely spanked by Embiid last night and Steven Adams the game before.  Even if they unleash Boban again tonight I see Vuc really giving the Clippers trouble.  Vuc already has 1 triple double under his belt this season, look for him to get after number 2 tonight.

 

Chump Charity

Don’t be fooled by the word ‘Chump’ these are value plays that you can slide into your lineup to help you relieve salary to pay up for some Studs.

PGDante Exum38003700
Minutes are on the rise, has over a 20% USG rate.
Tyus Jones42003700
Absolutely destroyed me the other night when he was ruled out from Warm ups. Looks like he will get in tonight.  I still like him over Rose.
SGAvery Bradley36003700
Wow has Bradley fell. He’s dirt cheap and plays.
Grayson Allen35003000
Super Punt, probably better to go O’Neale but wanted to throw his name out.
SFRoyce O’Neale35003300
No Mitchell should mean O’Neale see’s more minutes.
PFKevin Looney36003600
Near minimum and will see the floor. He’s almost always a punt option under 4k.
CBoban Marjanovic36003800
Boban was unleashed last night, he’s the best Center punt option tonight.  I think he will be a popular punt.

 

Final Thoughts:

I understand that I overlooked Ricky Rubio tonight.  He is a fine cash play at 5700 as he will be super high owned, I could see myself pairing Ricky with Westbrook or CP3 tonight.

I always like to talk out my first roster construction just to give you all a look inside of my mind.  I took a look at what things would look like if I locked in Westbrook, Dipo, Durant and it does get a bit dicey.  If you are okay with dipping into Exum/Jones at PG and imo these 2 are fine value plays tonight and really aren’t ‘punting’ the position.  If I use Tyus at PG2, I was able to slide in Gordon and RHJ at SG2 and PF1.  This is where it got a bit dicey, since I went Jones at PG I am okay with punting O’Neale at SF2.  Then in order to fit in Vala at Center I had to punt at PF2.  This lineup is far too risky to play in cash but overall I like it as a gpp lineup. To sure it up for Cash, I came off Westbrook to Paul, upgraded Tyus to Rubio, and then had enough left over to get to Taj Gibson at PF2.  Overall I feel much better about my floor and only having to punt 1 position.

 

Good Luck!

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