DFS Corner – October 31, 2018

7 min read

Here is a quick look at today’s slate:

AwayHomeTotalFavoriteSpread
DETBKN214.0BKN2.5
DENCHI224.5DEN7.5
UTAMIN221.5UTA3.0
INDNYK210.5IND5.5
NORGSW235.5GSW11.5
DALLAL235.0LAL7.0
SASPHO219.0SAS7.5

Initial Thoughts:

If Anthony Davis plays that Pelicans/Warriors game could be a fun one.  I really can’t tell by the total if Vegas thinks AD is playing as the Warriors are rolling right now.  Overall, I don’t think we have any for sure games or auto fades tonight.

Cash Game Targets

When looking at cash game players I will be looking at guys that have high floors, whether it is matchup driven or price driven, these players will help you make that cash line in Double Ups and H2Hs.  Cash Game Targets can also be used in Gpp lineups to anchor down your core.

 

PG

 

PlayerFDDK
Steph Curry99009800
Picking the right Warrior to plug into your lineups hasn’t been an easy task as of late.  The data says Curry is your best bet tonight as the Pelicans have been getting absolutely torched by PG’s so far, this season, giving up an average of 59.3 ftps/g to the position.  Curry’s price is getting up there but tonight I would put his floor at around 43 fpts.
Dennis Smith Jr65005900
DSJ has giving 30 fpts outings in all of his contents so far, this season with the exception of laying an egg vs the Bulls.  Tonight, he gets a pace up game and a great opportunity to stick that 5X value that we love in our cash lineups.
SG

 

Wes Matthews49005000
I’m really debating here, I’m not sure Matthews is the best recommendation here but at 4900 he becomes a nice value option in what appears to be the hardest position to nail.  When I have a position that doesn’t have any obvious plays stick out to me I tend to either go double premium or double punt.  Matthews fits the value/punt option here.
Demar DeRozan97009500
Priced at what I believe to be his highest price ever, DeRozan draws a matchup with the Suns tonight.  I think the floor is pretty good here I just don’t see another 60 pt outing as the Spurs won’t need it to get a Win.  Of all the 8k+ SG’s tonight I think DeRozan is the safest play, it’s just the 9700-price tag that makes me flinch.  If I don’t double punt the SG position I may look at a guy like Tim Hardaway JR or Klay Thompson as price discount over the top Tier of SGs.
SFLebron James1240011300
Until we know whether Davis is playing tonight your cash lineups should start with the Lebron decision.  Depending on what route you go will determine the rest of your construction.  I will more than likely start with him in, and as long as I can still fit Curry or Durant I will stick with it.  Once we know Davis’s status this might all change.
Joe Ingles61006200
Mr. Jingles got a slight price decrease and has struggled his last few games.  Tonight, he gets the Wolves who are ranked 25th in points given up to the SF position.  Butler will be targeting Mitchell most of the night.  Which should give Ingles more opportunity for shots, look for Ingles to make it rain tonight. **This was typed up before the Butler news broke, I still like Ingles but Wiggins is a nice pivot, this also makes me like Mitchell more too**
PFNoah Vonleh53004300
Vonleh started as a Chump Charity play and now he’s here.  If he keeps starting I will keep playing him until he’s 6k+.  He’s not a high usage guy but he does rebound well and is efficient with his shot attempts.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson60005200
He’s a better DK play tonight but his minutes have been slowly incrementing.  He did have a solid outing against the Knicks the other day going 16/7 in 27 minutes.  Guys that are coming back from injuries are good to target as you get a price discount, tonight looks like the night for RHJ to get his full slate of minutes and he’s about 1-1.5k short of his true price.  Get him in now before the price goes up.
CJulius Randle66006500
Randle has made it through AD’s absence with a huge price bump.  I like targeting small ball Centers vs the Warriors as teams will pay the matchup game.  Randle should be safe for a solid number of minutes regardless of whether AD plays or not.  I also like Gobert again tonight but his price increase has me taken off him.

 

 

 

GPP/Tournament Targets

Players that have high ceilings and are a little more on the risky side.

PG

 

PlayerFDDK
Derrick Rose55004900
There’s a tweet out there that says Rose is only going to get 28 minutes but I’m not sure I believe it.  Either way he’s a decent gpp target tonight with Butler and Wiggins being out.
Rajon Rondo58005700
I guess there is a slight revenge narrative here.  Add in that Lonzo has been god awful the last 2 games (go take a look at how bad it is) and that the Mavs are bottom 5 in points to PG’s and Rondo becomes a decent GPP target tonight.
SG

 

Josh Okogie46004400
I’m going to list all the Wolves tonight as targets, one thing I would not do though is stack them.  Utah is still a tough matchup and I think people forgot that the other night when Davis was out for the Pelicans.  Get exposure to the Wolves but don’t over do it.  Anyways, Okogie has been solid in Wiggins absence.
Tim Hardaway Jr70006800
THJ can light it up.  He’s had 6 24+ point games thus far this season.  He gets to shoot as much as he wants to.  I think the Knicks keep this game close behind THJ’s 30+ point outing tonight.
SFHarrison Barnes59005500
Played back to back games of 34 minutes.  This Laker game tonight will be fast so Barnes will have plenty of opportunity to put up points and snag some boards.  He’s super cheap!
Tyreke Evans53005100
Suggested him the other day and he was terrible.  Going for it again, priced at 5300 has a 40 fpt ceiling.  It’s worth a gpp dart.
PFDraymond Green76006700
Decent price, if AD plays Green will get plenty of run.  Green does all the dirty work so really can still go off without having a big scoring day. Super cheap on DK.
Anthony Davis1280011400
If Davis plays, I fully expect him to be a stud tonight, it’s the risk of him being out that will kill your lineup.  I will probably follow the news pretty close and make a gut decision right before lock on whether to play or fade.
CDeandre Ayton81007100
If the Suns can keep it close it will be on Ayton’s shoulders.  35 pt floor with break out 50 burger potential.

 

Chump Charity

Don’t be fooled by the word ‘Chump’ these are value plays that you can slide into your lineup to help you relieve salary to pay up for some Studs.

PGTyus Jones35003400
The news broke mid article that Butler/Teague are out tonight.  Don’t be cute and just play Tyus everywhere.  He will be massively owned and for a reason.
SGFrank Jackson35003400
Elf is out again. Jackson has been getting over 20 mins a game in his absence.
SFMikal Bridges35003400
Min prices and 20+ mins last 2 games.  Might get bumped out if Booker plays but if not he’s a solid punt option.
Mario Hezonja3800 
Since I nicknamed Dario Saric, Super Dario, I’m nicknaming Mario to Luigi….Luigi’s price has bottomed out.  He sees almost 20 mins a game.  He is punt worthy tonight.
PFJosh Jackson37004700
DK has him priced right, FD has him priced down because he’s been terrible.  30 pt upside at near minimum price.  Could help cram in 3 studs.
CEd Davis38003600
A lot riskier this time around with RHJ back but Davis is always a punt option when under 4k.

 

Final Thoughts:

A lot of my roster construction is going to be determined by whether or not AD is playing.  I think you should have AD or Lebron at the top and go from there.  I do like Curry but I also just heard that Okobo is starting at pg for the Suns and is min priced. You can do a lot with double punting PG tonight.  I’m going to start with using both of these guys with Lebron and do some experimenting with how my lineup looks.

 

Good Luck!!

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