DFS Corner – October 29th, 2018

9 min read

 

Here is a quick look at today’s slate:

AwayHomeTotalFavoriteSpread
PORIND216.5IND4.5
ATLPHI231.5PHI11.0
SACMIA225.5MIA8.5
BKNNYK215.5NYK2.0
GSWCHI229.0GSW11.0
TORMIL223.0TOR1.0
LALMIN239.5LAL2.0
DALSAS215.0SAS7.0
NORDEN232.5DEN6.5

 

Initial thoughts:

Looks like we have a few really solid matchups tonight.  My initial reaction is that the BKN/NYK, TOR/MIL, LAL/MIN, and NOR/DEN games all look like ones I want exposure to.  We have lots of injury news to sort through today, some of those players have already been ruled out.  This should open up value but it also might be a case where the value isn’t needed as the super elite players are Out.  Also, it looks like FD is really starting to bump the stars price tags as there are 12 players priced at 9k or above tonight!

Cash Game Targets

When looking at cash game players I will be looking at guys that have high floors, whether it is matchup driven or price driven, these players will help you make that cash line in Double Ups and H2Hs.  Cash Game Targets can also be used in Gpp lineups to anchor down your core.

 

PG

 

PlayerFDDK
Kyle Lowry88008000
Kawhi is out, Lowry has a 10% USG bump when Kawhi is not on the floor.  Keep in mind that Lowry has only played 51 mins without Leonard so fare this year.  Sample size is down but it doesn’t take a genius to know that the Offense will funnel through Lowry tonight.  Ibaka and Vala also receive decent USG bumps.
Frank Ntilikina48003900
Keep an eye out for lineup news.  If Frank is starting at point again (previously he started at the wing and Burke was the point) I highly recommend him in your cash lineups.  Frank put up 21.2 Fpts in 25 mins vs the Warriors.  If this game is as close as advertised I can see him pushing 30+ mins and with that 5.5X value. He’s especially in play at his DK price!
SG

 

Kris Middleton75006900
In 64 minutes without Giannis, Middleton is averaging 1.61 fpts per minute and has an alarming 36.8% USG rate.  Middleton will be a popular play tonight but he’s not one I think you can try to get cute with and fade.  Middleton is my LOCK OF THE NIGHT!
Monte Morris48004500
Monte Morris is taking advantage of Will Barton’s absence and is now seeing minutes in the high 20’s.  In his last 3 games Morris has averages 13.5 pts and 6 assists.  At 4800 we want that floor to be around 22 fpts, which Morris gets you in scoring and dimes alone.
SFNikola Mirotic73007300
I’m willing to put my personal bias towards Mirotic aside here.  There isn’t a lot of data on hand for both Davis and Elf being off the court.  In 17 mins where Mirotic was on the court without these two he has a 37% USG rate.  I think with Middleton being the lock at SG (over Jrue) going Mirotic gives us much needed exposure to the Pelicans without AD.
Durant/Lebron10600/1200010400/11400
With other studs being ruled out it clears the way for Durant/Lebron to be in your lineup.  I would like to guess that with the amount of value/opportunity that has came in so far today that you should be able to get 1 of these 2 in your lineup.
PFSerge Ibaka52005200
Those of you that have been following me are probably starting to think I am obsessed with Ibaka.  I promise you I’m not, I already mentioned that Ibaka gets a USG bump without Leonard.  Combine that with a 4X floor and I’m confident in plugging in Ibaka in my cash lineups.  His upside isn’t the same as it used to be but I’d like to think if we were going to get a ceiling game from Ibaka that tonight is the night.
Ersan Ilyasova41004100
Ersan is a chump charity play but the opportunity is too good not to emphasize as a main target.  He is sliding into the Starting Lineup tonight so the minutes and opportunity will be there.  He will be highly owned so a cash lock and a possible gpp pivot spot.  There are a lot of cheap viable PF’s tonight.
CJaVale McGee66006000
McGee averages 35.7 fpts this season.  I’d be lying if I said I saw this coming. Do I think its sustainable? No not really, but he’s got another solid opportunity tonight.  Wolves are in the bottom 10 vs Centers.  I like to attack the Wolves with rebounders.  McGee isn’t an elite rebounder by any means but I could see him bringing in 8=10 boards tonight.  McGee is cheaper than he should be at the level he is playing at.  If he was 7500 I would be fading.

 

 

 

GPP/Tournament Targets

Players that have high ceilings and are a little more on the risky side.

PG

 

PlayerFDDK
Jeff Teague66005300
I almost recommended Teague in cash, but then I remembered when I invest heavily in Teague he always flops.  This is a O/U play, that game will be played fast and getting exposure on both sides of the ball will be a popular gpp play.  I think Teague will be the lesser owned of the Wolves starters, meaning there is leverage to be had.
Jamal Murray72006300
Another elite pace game recommendation, the Pelicans are last in points given up to the PG position. Murray can really light it up when he is on.  Ceiling game opportunity for Murray tonight, I’ll take my 50-burger with a slice of cheese please.
SG

 

Jimmy Butler94008200
The Wolves are a mess and Butler’s really unpredictable right now.  Part of me is screaming DON’T DO IT as I type this, but than the other side of me is thinking that is what everyone is going to say.  Hopefully this means we can get a balling out Jimmy at less than 10% ownership in a game where his ceiling is 60+ fpts.  (I feel like I should say his floor is probably 28 here)
JJ Redick/Fultz5400/53005700/4200
Hawks are terrible defensively.  Philly is set to have a high total tonight.  If they are going to put up big points and win in a blowout that means both of these guys are viable options.  I think honestly would go Fultz over Redick if you made me choose one.
SFTyreke Evans5300 
Missed last game because of breaking team rules.  It’s a shame because he was coming off his best game of the season where he put up 19 points and dealt out 5 assists against the Spurs.  Tyreke’s minutes are usually coming in at under 24 so he’s not the safest play, but the guy can flat out ball.
Jabari Parker70005800
3 nights in a row that I will recommend him since Portis’s injury.  He put a nice stat line verses the Hawks last week.  This game more than likely blows out but if, and it’s a big IF, the Bulls somehow stick with the Warriors it will be behind the play of Jabari Parker.
PFTaj Gibson53004400
Another exposure play, again, similar to Teague, Gibson might get overlooked in what should be a really fast game.  There are a ton of good PF options tonight so Gibson should be at a low ownership, he has 35 fpt upside here.
Kyle Kuzma59006600
Big time price drop for Kuzma.  I’ve talked enough about the pace/projected total for this game.  I also talk about how I like to target guys after price drops, there is a reason Kuzma had such a dramatic price increase in the first place.  In my opinion, he’s still a little overpriced for his floor but he’s definitely cheap for the upside.  I prefer Kuzma over Gibson here.
CJulius Randle63006200
Flopped last game vs Utah with Davis out.  Might help the ownership this time around.  Blow out and foul trouble concerns have me scared off Randle for cash but the upside is extreme and hard to ignore vs the Nuggets.  As a Laker in 4 games last year Randle averaged 33.35 fpts a game.  Add in that he will have a higher USG rate tonight and we could see a 40+ fpt tonight out of Randle.

 

Chump Charity

Don’t be fooled by the word ‘Chump’ these are value plays that you can slide into your lineup to help you relieve salary to pay up for some Studs.

PGFred VanVleet46004300
Kawhi is out, so it’s all hands-on deck tonight.  FVV makes for a bit of a risky play at his price but the opportunity will be there.
TJ McConnell35003500
McConnell has hit rock bottom on his pricing.  He has become a bit of a DFS Unicorn the last few seasons as he can put up stats when given the opportunity. I’m not sure tonight is the night to jump on his minimum price point, I just wanted to make sure I got him in as a punt when I saw he had hit minimum.
SGFrank Jackson35003400
Jackson got 22 minutes of run verses the Jazz.  I haven’t checked the box score breakdown of that game so its possible he got most of that run in the 4th quarter.  Either way, at 3500 he becomes a solid punt option.
SFNorman Powell35003200
Powell has the ability to light it up in a hurry.  He also is known to just run up and down the court and not do a dang thing.  Good thing he is 3500 so we can take the risk that Powell number 2 shows up.
DeAndre Bembry44004100
He’s overpriced because of his ceiling game vs Dallas, but then again, he has 10X upside even at 4400.
PFNoah Vonleh44004200
I don’t like the slight increase in price but if he starts again he’s a great value option.  He’s also a nice pivot off of Chalky Ersan.
John Henson38003800
If he stays sub 4k he will always be in my chump charity recommendations.  Too much upside for 3800.
CMitchell Robinson35003400
Started last game and had 29 minutes of run.  If he started tonight he is definitely playable vs the Nets who are 29th in fpts vs Centers.

 

Final Thoughts:

This doesn’t happen often that my Cash recommendations actually fit into a lineup.  This makes my lineup construction talk pointless.  Please make sure you follow the injury/lineup news as guys like Vonleh getting another start could really open up more value that might allow you to afford another stud.

Thanks again for reading.

Good Luck!

Leave a Reply