DFS Corner – October 27th, 2018

11 min read

A quick look at today’s slate:

AwayHomeTotalFavoriteSpread
BOSDET208.0BOS4.0
UTANOR222.5UTA2.0
CHIATL231.0ATL5.5
INDCLE215.0IND7.0
CHAPHI229.5PHI6.0
PHOMEM208.5MEM8.5
PORMIA219.5MIA1.5
ORLMIL220.0MIL9.5
LALSAS230.0LAL1.5

Initial Thoughts:

I usually take the weekends off from NBA DFS but since I’ve been a little on the poor side with my picks the last couple days I’ve decided to bring you all my thoughts and opinions for this Saturday’s slate of games.  Not only is today special because you get a special Saturday edition of the DFS Corner it also happens to be my Wedding Anniversary.  My wife treated me with an empty house this morning, so I thought I’d capitalize on it to get in some research.

Cash Game Targets

When looking at cash game players I will be looking at guys that have high floors, whether it is matchup driven or price driven, these players will help you make that cash line in Double Ups and H2Hs.  Cash Game Targets can also be used in Gpp lineups to anchor down your core.

 

PG

 

PlayerFDDK
Mike Conley78007600
There are multiple ways to attack the PG position tonight, but I think as I look at the matchups there is 1 PG who really sticks out.  Conley’s USG rate over the last 3 games checks in at over 30.  Combine that with tonight matchup with the Suns and that the Grizzles just need Conley to play well to win night in and night out and you’ve got yourself a sure-fire cash game PG.
Ben Simmons97009400
Simmons projects to be the highest scoring PG on today’s slate and is also one of the top points/$ plays on tonight’s slate.  I tend to use DVP a lot when breaking down matchups but there are some players that break those position barriers and Simmons is one of them.  I really think the pairing of Conley/Simmons is the way to go in cash tonight but if you need a few extra dollars drop down to a guy like Cam Payne who has a good matchup with the Hawks tonight.  Since I’ve had a rough outing the last 2 nights with my locks I’m going with a freebie here and stating Simmons is MY LOCK OF THE NIGHT!!!
SG

 

DeMar DeRozan81008500
Just 5 days ago Derozan used an overtime matchup against the Lakers to put up 63.6 FD points!  I would temper expectations a bit as OT is not predictable, but Vegas tells us this will be high scoring and close yet again.  If you’ve been reading my stuff you know I love high totals and close games.  If you go value at your PG2 spot I would recommend getting Derozan in at SG1.
Zach LaVine84007900
LaVine is a USG monster, coming in at a rate of 33.2.  He also is getting big minutes and has a juicy matchup with the Hawks tonight. I’m really going to have to find you guys some value plays tonight to balance out these PGs/SGs I have suggested to target.  I really like both LaVine and DeRozan tonight.
SFJonathan Isaac54004800
Alright, I could easily recommend Giannis and Lebron here and both are playable.  Honestly, looking at the SF position it looks like it’s going to be the Punt or Premium position.  So far, I’ve given you 4 guys in that 8k range which means we need some cheaper options to balance it out.  The DVP matchup here is spot on, as the Bucks are currently 28th at points to the SF position.  Isaac is coming off B2B 30+ Fpt games and did not get a price bump.  Isaac offers a solid 10 pts/7 boards and might pick up a block or 2.  Which is perfect for the 5400 you will pay for him.
Jabari Parker67006100
Wrote him up last night, and he flopped… (not the only flop, I’ll be honest).  I still think the minutes are going to be there.  The Bulls got whooped last night so I’m not worried about minutes being down after a B2B.  Again, it’s a matchup with the Hawks who are essentially attackable across the board.
PFJaren Jackson Jr.65006000
Triple J has the starting role now that Green is out.  He’s used that to his advantage and has gone for 12.5PTs 7RBs 1ST and 1B over the last 2 games.  He has a juicy matchup with the Suns.  I do have to caveat this with some foul trouble concerns but I think JJJ’s minutes will be there even if this game blows out.  Since this day is my anniversary and I went with an easy lock tonight I’m going to give you a second lock… JJJ IS MY 2ND LOCK OF THE NIGHT!!!
LaMarcus Aldridge91009000
The Lakers are 30th in Defense vs the PF position.  Aldridge put up 61.5 in this spot 5 days ago. The Spurs are a home underdog tonight.  I really do love pairing DeRozan and LMA together.  It’s an expensive combo but it provides a nice high floor/high ceiling to anchor down your lineup.
CRudy Gobert81007400
I’m aware of the fact that its impossible to cram all my recommendations into 1 lineup and I apologize for that but to my defense there are just so many good options tonight.  This will be a big pace up game for the Jazz and the Pelicans are in the bottom 3 at points given up to Centers.  When you play at a high pace there is more opportunity for rebounds, so it just makes sense to attack the Pelicans at the Center positions especially ones that they will struggle to defend.  Rudy is a beast in there and I think he could 50 Burger tonight!

 

 

 

GPP/Tournament Targets

Players that have high ceilings and are a little more on the risky side.

PG

 

PlayerFDDK
Cameron Payne56005000
Mid ranged pricing might keep the ownership down.  Has a USG rate of over 20 when starting for Dunn.  Will see minutes.
Trae Young76007200
It’s a high total in Atlanta and they are favored by 5.5.  It’s my opinion that if they are going to get to the 118-point total needed to get to 231, Young is going to have to put up some points.  He’s shown he’s capable when he went off for 35 vs the Cavs last week.
SG

 

Victor Oladipo83007700
Priced at 8300 he will go lower owned as players will play DeRozan, LaVine, and Mitchell over top of him.  I can’t think of anyone on the Cavs that will stop him.  There’s ceiling potential tonight with Dipo.
Rodney McGruder52005300
McG has finally made it out of the Chump Charity section with his price bump.  I’m still not sure if its enough to keep me away from him.  The Matchup isn’t great, but Mcg has been one of the hottest players of the season so far.  I will have some exposure to him tonight.
SFRudy Gay61005600
Gay has yet to eclipse the 30 fpt game.  The day is coming and with a matchup vs the Lakers he’s the perfect gpp play tonight.
Robert Covington57005100
Covington’s cheapest price of the season so far.  He has the potential to wrack up 3’s and steals I a hurry.  This is more of a gut gpp call, if you decide to BobCo, best of luck.
PFWendall Carter Jr.56004300
Price is right on DK.  Hasn’t really had that break out game yet, the upside is there and with Portis out so will the opportunity with his minutes.
Thad Young48004700
Thad is a frustrating DFS play, has a floor of 6 and a ceiling of 50.  I’m just looking at a price play here.
CNikola Vucevic82008300
I don’t get the pricing here.  Center’s generally have a bigger bump then what their avg is.  Vuc has averaged 45 FD points this year that’s more than his 5X value at 8200.  The matchup isn’t the greatest but Vuc just does so much for this team. He would be a fine cash play as well.

 

Chump Charity

Don’t be fooled by the word ‘Chump’ these are value plays that you can slide into your lineup to help you relieve salary to pay up for some Studs.

PG

 

PlayerFDDK
Patty Mills36003800
Dirt Cheap gets the Lakers again, will see a bunch of minutes and has potential to get hot, has struggled thus far this season.
Isaiah Canaan42004600
Cheap starting PG option.  Booker is out so Canaan may get a few more shots tonight.
SG

 

Garrett Temple41004000
I don’t expect another 10X game out of Temple, but the matchup is juicy vs the Suns.
Rodney Hood41004300
Oh Rodney, I don’t think I like you anymore….sorry, hopefully you sang that just like I did (to the tune of Rodney Harrington’s Dear, Penis)  He starts, he gets minutes, the opportunity is there.
SFKyle Anderson41004500
Got the start last game vs the Kings.  Played 28 minutes.  He had times where he put up solid numbers for the Spurs.
Chandler Hutchison35003400
Min priced on FD, got the start last night for Chicago.  It’s not a great play I get it but min priced starters give you potential and help cram studs.
PFJosh Jackson40005100
Josh Jackson was a thing last year when given big minutes.  Booker is out tonight, might be an opportunity for Jackson to get more PT at the wing. Huge pricing discount on FD.  My projections guy has him for 34 minutes tonight…he’s Cash Viable!!!
Ersan Ilyasova40004200
Ersan used a blowout last night to get to 30 Fpts, Jackson is the much better play on FD but I can’t ignore 30 pt upside at 4k.
CBamba/Gasol4200/4000 
Sorry for grouping these 2 together but I usually only give 1 center to follow along with FD’s positional breakdowns.  These 2 are exact opposites as Bamba’s minutes are going up and Gasol’s are coming down.  Either way they are both in decent spots and are punt options at Center.

 

Final Thoughts:

This new rule has me all shaken up on FD.  I’ve been cramming more 2nd tier guys with my value punts and had a couple good days but overall, I keep losing to the 2-3 stud lineups.  In my opinion FD needs to raise the prices on the studs and lower their minimum priced players.  I don’t want to get on a rant here and sound like I’m being a baby because I haven’t taken down a GPP.  There’s a point to my ramblings, I still think the best shot at winning tonight is to keep the same approach I’ve been doing and that is to get my floors from the 8-9k range players rather than locking in the 12k+.  A friend of mine said today, you must lose to win, and there’s so much truth to that.  We learn from our losses and yes adjustments need to be made but I think it’s more about the process/approach then it is about the lineup constructions.  On to lineup construction.

Locked in Simmons/DeRozan/JJJ as my core.  I’m now torn between which Value plays to go with.  I think Josh Jackson at PF and 4k might be the best per/$ play on the slate.  Which means I must sacrifice the opportunity to play LMA, I think I’m okay with a that.  I really think we need to nail our Center play and I’m going to stick to my guns with Gobert here.  That leaves me with 5900/spot to fill out PG2, SG2, and both SF spots.  Knowing that I can get Isaac for 5400, I’m going to throw him in as SF1.  Now the question is, do I need another 7-8k guy to solidify my floor, or do I stick in the 5500-6500 range for these last 3 spots?  My PG options are Payne, Conley, or Mills.  If I want Conley, I get 5200 left for my last 2 spots (would be like McGruder and Larry Nance Jr).  Payne leaves me 6300 left for each, and Mills 7300 for each.  Just looking at what is left, I think I will play a 2nd punt in Patty Mills which allows me to get Zach Lavine as my SG2 and Rudy Gay in my final FD spot.  It’s a bit scary to be relying on 3 guys from the same game in cash, so I changed my mind once again.  This time I went down from Gay to Kyle Anderson and came up from Patty to Cam Payne.  Looking at this overall build I am now satisfied.  I do have an extra 100 so if I change my mind on Rudy I can easily swap in Vucevic.

Thanks for stopping by on this lovely Saturday!

Good Luck All!

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