DFS Corner – October 24th, 2018

8 min read

Here is a quick look at today’s slate:

AwayHomeTotalFavoriteSpread
DALATL236DAL1.5
BKNCLE227CLE3.0
NYKMIA221MIA8.0
MINTOR229TOR8.0
CHACHI230.5CHA5.0
UTAHOU217.5HOU2.0
INDSAS210SAS1.5
PHIMIL224.5MIL6.5
LALPHO238LAL4.5
MEMSAC220MEM3.0
WASGSW234.5GSW10.0

 

Looks like we have a juicy 11 game slate on our hands.  Vegas has 4 games slated for 230+ points with numerous others in the 220’s.  Based on these O/U’s and spreads, I will want exposure to the DAL/ATL game and the LAL/PHO for sure, but lets take a deeper dive into the data and mix it with some of personal opinions to come up with today’s DFS Targets.

Cash Game Targets

When looking at cash game players I will be looking at guys that have high floors, whether it is matchup driven or price driven, these players will help you make that cash line in Double Ups and H2Hs.  Cash Game Targets can also be used in Gpp lineups to anchor down your core.

 

PG

 

PlayerFDDK
Isaiah Canaan44004300
The starting PG for a team in a 238 total is playing the team ranked 30th in giving up FPs to the PG position and is priced at 4400.  This is the cash play of the day.  I get it, it’s Canaan but I personally don’t care who it was I would plug them in my cash lineup for the day.
Lonzo Ball70006300
See again the 238 totals, lots of good options elsewhere tonight but overall Lonzo’s price of 7k is fair, the Suns are 29th in points given up to the PG position.  Lonzo went 14/6/6 vs the Spurs in 33 minutes.  There’s no reason to believe he can’t at minimum match this vs the Suns.  Play him with confidence.
SG

 

J.J. Redick52005500
Redick is on fire right now and has around a 28% USG rate without Ben Simmons on the floor.  The Bucks are better at defending SG’s then both the Pistons and the Magic but we don’t need the 45 Fpts he’s averaged over the last 2 games, we just need 26 for him to pay off.
Wes Matthews5400 
Going 2 middle of the road SG’s is odd for me as I usually like to pay up for a stud here or drop all the way down to a value punt.  Matthews is in a better spot than Redick but doesn’t bring the same upside.  If you don’t want to go double mid value I would suggest playing 1 of my 2 suggestions and then pay up for someone like Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, or everyone’s favorite unicorn, Caris Levert.
SFKevin Durant99009700
All of the premium SF’s are on tonight’s slate, and you really can’t go wrong with any of them.  Durant’s going to be my preferred target as he comes in at his cheapest price of the season.  Lebron has the best matchup of all the premiums.
Trevor Ariza52004900
I don’t like to do game stacks in cash but the exposure to PHO/LAL is going to be needed tonight.  Ariza gives you that exposure at pretty solid price tag.  I more than likely will be going double premium at SF or dipping into the Chump Charity plays for my SF2 tonight but nonetheless Ariza is in a good spot.
PFKevin Love85008800
The Nets are allowing their opponents to shoot a scorching 40% from the 3 pt line.  I want to attack the Nets with some Love as he is averaging 6.3 3 pt attempts per game, combine that with his elite rebounding ability, a high O/U, and a close game and you get my PF play of the night.
Serge Ibaka54005400
I’m going back to the well here.  Ibaka was my lock of the night the other night, and although he didn’t kill me he didn’t provide the value that I thought he would.  Tonight he draws the Wolves who will give up points to rebounders.  I like both Ibaka and Valanciunas tonight vs the Wolves.
CDeandre Ayton77007300
Ayton’s price just hasn’t caught up to his ability.  I’ve recommend him in both games that he went for 45 Fpts and I think he gets there again tonight.  The matchup is just too good.  I don’t usually lock in Centers on FD but I may just do it tonight.  I think I will have 80% Ayton in my gpp lineups, which means he is my LOCK OF THE NIGHT!!!!!

 

 

 

GPP/Tournament Targets

Players that have high ceilings and are a little more on the risky side.

PG

 

PlayerFDDK
Goran Dragic65006200
Dragic has had a solid start to the season, averaging 33.8 Fpts per outing.  I will be more than likely playing at least 1 of Lonzo or Canaan in everyone of my gpp lineups.
Dennis Smith Jr69006300
Smith has struggled this season thus far.  Trae Young although a fun young player, is not a very good defensive commodity.  We are going to attack him again and hope that DSJ finally has a bounce back game.  The potential is definitely there for a ceiling game tonight.
SG

 

Bradley Beal80007500
Warriors are ranked last at fpts to SG’s.  Beal is red hot with back to back 48+ fpt games.  He’s in a great spot to target here.
Jordan Clarkson47004900
Clarkson sees around 24 mins again and gets about a 27% USG rate when on the court.  He’s facing a high pace team. Clarkson has quietly been putting up 23.8 fpts/game so far this season.  I think this is an opportunity spot to target him.
SFOtto Porter64006000
They say good dfs players always follow the data and don’t react to last years stats…well I’m going to ignore that advice…in 2 games last year Porter put up an average of 49.5 fpts vs the Warriors.  I’ll take it as a tournament play.
Lebron/Giannis/KawhiExpensiveExpensive
I’m being lazy here but seriously play at least 1 SF stud in your lineups please.
PFMarvin Bagley50004800
He’s been off and on again but the data says he’s in a good spot and he can really deliver on his price point.
Derrick Favors53005200
Priced at his lowest spot of the season, this is an extreme pace up game for Utah.  I’m throwing Favors into my gpp pool and hoping for a ceiling game…my only worry is that his ceiling game now days is 15/10 but hopefully he can get some of the 3 fpt blocks to fill out the stat line.
CKarl Anthony-Towns92008200
It’s not an elite gpp play, more of a price and opportunity play.  Toronto is a solid defensive team but are the worse at defending the SF and C positions.  My thinking here is if this game hits the 229 Total, the Wolves are going to need to score 110 points.  In my opinion they need Towns to have at least 25 to sniff that total….

 

Chump Charity

Don’t be fooled by the word ‘Chump’ these are value plays that you can slide into your lineup to help you relieve salary to pay up for some Studs.

PGTyler Johnson35003700
Johnson has been pretty quiet with his 23 mins a game. He tends to put up big numbers for no apparent reason…he’s minimum priced tonight vs the Knicks.
Cameron Payne37004000
Should draw the start again tonight.  Not super high on him but at 3700 you could do worse.
SGRodney McGruder45004900
I’m still waiting on the Rodney McGruder Unicorn verdict.  Hoping the boys can get together soon to get us the full season.  Anyways McGruder has been playing like 1 7k player, his price hasn’t increased enough.
KCP37004000
I had KCP as a GPP target the other day.  There’s so many reasons why this is a bad suggestion again but that price is just too cheap.  This is definitely a GPP punt recommendation though.
SFJeff Green37003900
Green’s minutes have not been consistent so it is a little harder to gauge his worth.  I could see the Wizards using Green in their small ball lineups tonight though.
Omri Casspi36003400
I brought up Casspi before and maybe he’s not the best value target but I wanted to get a Grizzly in to bring it to your attention to monitor Temple and Dillon Brooks status.  If they are out some serious value options open up for Memphis, just need to figure out who to play at that point.

 

Final Thoughts:

I was able to fit in all of my cash recommendations left and to my surprise had 6500 left for my SF2.  I decided to stick in one of my Gpp plays there and at this point don’t have a chump charity guy in my Cash lineup.  I may play with this a little bit to see if I can’t cram another stud in but at this point I’m happy with it.

Good Luck!!

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