Opening Day DFS Targets
Who let the DFS guy participate on a Dynasty NBA blog?
Whether Dynasty and Season long truthers want to admit it, there is a lot of correlation between Daily Fantasy Sports and Season/Dynasty Leagues. The biggest tie ins that I have found are the temporary streamers and value plays. If it weren’t for DFS I would have never known about guys like Tyrone Wallace, Caris Levert, or everyone’s favorite opportunity play Boban Marjanovic. These guys aren’t going to be players that are going to ultimately win you you’re league but if given the opportunity they might be temporary pickups that can help you get a weekly win or 2 throughout the season. Okay, I’m done trying to defend myself here, and am going to use the rest of my blog post to take a look at the opening day slate. I will be using FanDuel pricing and positions for my breakdowns. Keep in mind that FD changed its format this year to a play 9 players and will drop your lowest score.
My favorite positional plays will be in GREEN and I only wrote about guys I would consider.
Tuesday October 16th
I wouldn’t recommend playing a 2 game slate but since it is opening night of NBA I’m going to get in on some action. With that being said today’s post is going to be more tournament driven.
76ers at Celtics
What does Vegas say?
Celtics by 5
I think this game stays within reach, so the studs will get 4th quarter run. In a 2 game slate we will need to be almost perfect to cross that cash line. I am going to target Celtics as my core players (Kyrie & Horford) then look for value from the other teams.
Kyrie Irving, $8,400
I have a rule in dfs, if Kyrie Irving is on the slate and priced under $9,000 I always have exposure to him, and I don’t plan to change. From my experience in DFS he is always over looked and with guys like Curry/Simmons/Fultz on this slate I think that trend continues. Kyrie has as high of ceiling as anybody. Here were his per game averages in 3 games vs the 76res last year: 25.7 pts, 5.3 rbs, 4.7 asts, .7 stls. I’m hoping to get a repeat of last years 36 point outing at home. Full disclosure though, I’m a Kyrie truther and when he temporarily believed the Earth is flat…I hopped on that band wagon too.
Ben Simmons, $10,000
Last year Simmons was slated as a PF on FD and I’m not going to lie that I’m too excited about them moving his position over to PG this year. With this position change and his price I think I will be fading. I won’t fault you for paying for him though as with this game having a chance of being close up til the end Simmons could see close to 40 minutes. With those minutes come the stats. If I’m multi entering I will have some exposure to Simmons but if I’m going single entry I will be fading the young stud. Last year stats vs C’s (4 games) 12.5 pts 6.5 rbs 4.8 ast 2.3 st.
Markelle Fultz, $5,700
My initial thoughts on Fultz were that price is just too high. Then I started looking at his preseason box scores….which start out really good and fizzled out at the end. One thing they do point to is that Fultz is going to get to play. I think he will see over 30 minutes tonight and has the scoring ability to pay off his 5700 price tag in points alone. I’m on the fence here but with the lack of value options on the slate and at PG I think I’m going to be tossing Fultz in my single entry lineup and if I were to be going with multiple lineups I’d dial him in at 40%.
Terry Rozier, $4,100
Scary Terry is priced as a punt option on FD. With the new rule of dropping your lowest score, Rozier might hold some value. He has a decent ceiling and if you’re looking to take some risk he fits the mold of if he gets me 30, YAY, if he gets me 10, oh well, I only have to take my best 8…..
Jaylen Brown, $5,900
The Celtics have a ton of weapons and Jaylen Brown definitely deserves to be mentioned as one. Brown is a SG who can pick up some of the defensive stats, with at 3 points per block/steal on FD, can really wrack up the fantasy points. With that said, his price is too high for his upside, so I will be recommending the full fade of Brown.
JJ Redick, $5,100
With Fultz attempting a comeback, I will be shying away from Redick. He just barely makes the list of guys I would consider because of his floor which I think is cemented in at about 22 fpts. At his price of $5,100 he was able to hit the ‘5x’ value in just about 50% of his games last year. Redick is in play, I’m just going to take the wait and see approach on him and will not have him in any lineups.
Gordon Hayward, $7,400
Hayward’s return makes him my 3rd favorite SF option on the slate. It’s really hard to wage how Hayward is going to be used on the Celtics. If he were 1k cheaper I would be all over him. Being priced at 7400 makes him viable but I’m just not sure I want to take the risk with needing a 35-40 fpt game to pay off.
Robert Covington, $6,500
Rob Cov only makes the list due to FD’s positional options. He’s the cheapest of the viable SF options (Wilson Chandler is doubtful) so if you need the salary feel free to plug him in. I will more than likely be locking in the SF options from the 2nd game in all my lineups.
Marcus Morris, $4,500
Morris will be a part of the Celtic’s 2nd Unit. I think he sees around 24 mins tonight which should be more than enough time to pay off his 4500 price point.
Dario Saric, $6,400
I feel like someday Dario will take over the nickname of Super Dario and all of us NBA fans will suffer from the Mandela Effect and think we grew up playing Super Dario on our Nintendo’s…Dario is a stat stuffer and will stuff enough stats along with his 18 points tonight to pay off his price tag.
Update – With Muscala being out I could see Saric getting some minutes at C tonight. Which just futhers my adoration for Super Dario.
Jayson Tatum, $6,200
Tatum is at a really good price tag to attack. With Hayward coming back though I’m going to be taking another wait and see approach, but if you want to Tatum, feel free to Tatum.
Al Horford gets no respect. He’s my favorite Center play of the night. (It’s a good Center night for a 2 game slate though). Al averaged 34.2 fpts/game in 4 games with the 76ers last year. Feel confident to lock him in your Single Entries and to get yourself 60-75% exposure in multi’s.
Embiid could easily be the highest scorer on today’s slate. He comes with a hefty price tag and with FD’s new punt rule (that’s what I’m calling the drop lowest score rule) might be needed to take down a gpp. With that being said I’m still favoring Horford as my main Center play.
Don’t go crazy but a minimum priced punt that should see the floor is a risk/reward type play. If you can stomach the risk it might pan out as the savings can lead the way to cramming studs in at other positions.
Thunder at Warriors
What does Vegas say?
Warriors by 12
The Warriors start 2018 with a bang and absolutely destroy the Thunder. With it being such a small slate you will need some action on this game to win, also for future purposes players have to perform in order for blowouts to happen…..
Steph Curry, $9,600
Steph is always an exciting guy to play. He is also one that tends to get overlooked more than a person would think, but he tends to always be priced pretty high. I don’t think his upside is priced out but I think if I’m paying 9600 for Steph I would rather find the extra $400 to get to Simmons.
Dennis Schroder, $6,100
What is FD thinking? I’m actually happy they moved Schroder over to SG for this slate but it makes 0 sense. He is a PG and started every preseason game as a PG….anyways. With Westbrook out Schroder will be running the show. LOCK HIM IN!!! I will have 100% exposure to Dennis.
Klay Thompson, $6,800
Klay is often the forgotten piece of the Warrior puzzle. He has the upside to be a 8-9k player but is always priced down as he is mainly just a scorer. Due to the other options today I will also be locking in Klay at SG tonight.
Kevin Durant, $10,600
Durant is a stud. He’s one of the best players in the NBA, there isn’t anything I can do or say that will change your mind to play him or to not play him. The choice is yours….choose wisely. (I want to play him but due to pricing I don’t think I can get him in)
Paul George, $9,000
No Westbrook means I love PG13, an argument can be made to fade with the blowout potential, so again with the wishy/washy advice, play him if you want, fade if you want. I however will be playing him.
Draymond Green, $8,000
Draymond is a fun guy to target in DFS and can win you money when he fills up the stat sheet. Unfortunately, there are times when he loses you money too. I’m going to be fading Green tonight.
Patrick Patterson, $3,500
Someone should probably shut off the record player….it appears to be broken…with the FD punt strategy a minimum priced player getting minutes is a viable target. If you want to take on some risk plug in Pat Pat and see what happens.
Update – Patterson becomes a value punt if Adams is out.
Jerami Grant, $4,700
Grant is a decent value option for tonight’s slate. Pairing him with Morris and going double value at PF is the route I plan to go tonight. If I were going to choose between him and Morris though I would take Morris.
Update – Donovan has used Grant at the 5 previously with Adams out. If Adams gets ruled out Grant becomes one of my favorite plays.
Steven Adams, $6,900
Adams fills up the defensive stats and imo should dominate the wanna be Centers that GS will put out tonight. With his price point being the same as big Al I will be playing Horford over him.
Update – Steven Adams is currently Questionable, if he gets ruled out (we may not get news by lock) then Patterson, Grant, and Noel become even better value plays!
Bell is the upside guy but he’s priced at 5400 and with no clear picture of how GS will play these 2 he’s a tough play. Jones at 4k is another viable punt option but if I’m punting Center I’m playing Muscala.
Update – Nerlens Noel – IF Adams gets ruled out Noel becomes an instant plug -n- play. We may not get news before lock so if you want to take on some risk tonight use Noel at Center and use that savings to jam in some studs.
There you have it, a complete breakdown of a 2 game slate. When I do these blog posts I only plan to write up guys that even stand out as options for me. My initial lineup construction started with Kyrie, Schroder, George, and Horford as my must plays, then I rounded it out with guys like Fultz, Thompson, and value PFs. It really is a tough slate and you will need to use at least 1 punt if you want any of the 10k players. I found it a bit difficult to make 1 lineup and for that reason I’m only making 1 lineup for Tuesday night.
UPDATE – due to speculative Value opening up with Adams I will be multi entering today. This way I can have some exposure to the extreme value of Noel and also keep Big Al. This news will keep Al’s ownership lower than I initially thought, which is always good in DFS.